Global PC shipments have shown a small increase in the fourth quarter of 2023, two technology analyst companies say, adding that the market appears to have bottomed out, with growth expected in 2024.
One firm, Canalys, said the 65.3 million units shipped during the quarter represented modest growth of 3% year-on-year, with notebooks at 51.6 million units, up 4% from 2022, while desktops fell 1% to 13.7 million units. For the year, 247 million units were shipped, a drop of 13% year-on-year.
The company said the market was now set for growth, with AI-capable PCs likely to provide a boost during the refresh cycle amnd beyond.
The other firm that reported an increase in shipments, Gartner, said 63.3 million units had been shopped in the last three months of 2023, a 0.3% increase from the corresponding quarter of 2022, making for an annual total of 241.8 million units, a 14.8% decrease year-on-year.
{loadposition sam08}It said 2023 was the first time that shipment volume had fallen below 250 million units since 2006, when 230 million units were shipped.
But a third firm, IDC, went the other way, finding that 4Q23 shipments has fallen by 2.7% year-on-year with 67.1 million PCs being shipped. The firm did not provide a number for shipments for the whole of 2023.
Canalys researcher manager Himani Mukka said: “[The year] 2023 was a challenging one for the PC industry, but companies have remained resilient and can now look forward to an improving landscape.
“The cautious optimism across key players in the market has been borne out by a stronger holiday season compared to last year and inventory corrections in the previous quarters have helped support renewed sell-in.
"As macro-economic conditions continue to improve, companies and individuals that have delayed their purchasing for many quarters are now set to resume spending on PCs.”
Ryan Reith, group vice-president with IDC's Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers, commented: "Across the major technology categories, the PC market has arguably been the biggest rollercoaster in terms of ups and downs over the past four years.
"While the market was down again in 2023 in terms of shipments, there is a lot of positive momentum for PCs looking forward. While AI has clearly captured everyone's attention, it shouldn't be overlooked that 2024 is expected to be a strong year for commercial PC refresh, and the advancements around gaming PCs continue to drive market excitement."
Mikako Kitagawa, director analyst at Gartner, felt the PC market had hit the bottom of its decline after significant adjustment.
“Inventory was normalised in the fourth quarter of 2023, which had been an issue plaguing the industry for two years," she pointed out.
"This subtle growth suggests that demand and supply are finally balanced. However, this situation will likely change due to the anticipated component price hike 2024, as well as geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
“Throughout these challenges, all top six vendors maintained their position without notable share gains or losses. With this in mind, Gartner projects that the PC market will return to annual growth in 2024.”
Canalys principal analyst Ishan Dutt said: “To capitalise on the demand uptick, the PC industry will now deliver meaningful innovation through on-device AI capabilities in PCs, with 2024 set to be a bumper year for such devices.
“A slew of announcements from both OEMs and chipset vendors at CES will set the stage for more products to be brought to market later in the year. We expect one in five PCs shipped this year to be AI-capable, incorporating a dedicated chipset or block, such as an NPU, to run on-device AI workloads.
"Adoption will ramp up quickly thereafter, especially in the commercial sector, where the benefits of on-device AI related to productivity, security and cost management will become a key consideration for businesses.”